Written entirely by Claude, as a working record for agents more than for human readers: every number with its source file, and every claim since withdrawn. Some facts here may be out of date; where it disagrees with the post, trust the post. For the readable version, see the companion.

Claims and evidence

The seven-row claims table of the 2026-09-15 post draft expanded so that every number in it names the analysis file and JSON key it was read from on 2026-09-16, the wiki page that holds the full result, and the control that supports it.

currentverified 2026-09-16

Since 2026-10-30 the current statement is the post Persona Geology (Post: Persona Geology (2026-10-30)), which has no claims table; its numbers were checked against these rows and the differences are in Source contradictions S30 to S35. The post draft of 2026-09-15 (post-draft) closes with a seven-row table: claim, evidence, status, what would break it. This page is that table with the evidence column opened up. Every number below was re-read from the named file and key on 2026-09-16; where the draft rounds, the full-precision value is given beside it. The "control" column names the measurement that rules out the obvious alternative explanation. Where the draft's number is a ratio the file does not store, both operands are cited and the arithmetic is shown.

Conventions: results/ and analysis/ are under qwen35/. "Tucker congruence" and the other terms are defined in the Glossary. The wiki page named in each row holds the full result, its caveats and its history.

Row 1. The updates have five-factor structure

Status in the draft: holds; Big Five congruence 0.40 to 0.68. Would break it: independent constitutions giving a different rotation.

number in the draft value in the file file and key wiki page control
Warmth to Agreeableness 0.66 0.6554774644183582 results/fa_qwen35.json#solutions.centred_k5.congruence_oblimin[0][1] Factor analysis of the adapter Gram, FA_Warmth (Warmth / prosociality) permuted-label arm: agreement with labels at chance
Competence to Conscientiousness 0.57 0.5744454556114018 ...congruence_oblimin[1][2] FA_Competence (Competence) same
Timidity to Emotional Stability 0.40 0.4048918307420467 (and 0.3380 to Extraversion) ...congruence_oblimin[2][3], [2][0] FA_FearfulWithdrawal (Timidity) the rotation is also in the text (row 2)
Arousal to Extraversion 0.54 0.538926935263515 (and -0.3483 to Emotional Stability) ...congruence_oblimin[3][0], [3][3] FA_Arousal (Arousal / activation) same
Imagination to Intellect 0.68 0.6822835176928186 ...congruence_oblimin[4][4] FA_Imagination (Imagination) same
parallel analysis retains nine chosen 9 at reference N 1528 results/fa_qwen35.json#n_factors.chosen, #n_factors.parallel_analysis_centred.grid[3].k_unreduced_95pct Factor analysis of the adapter Gram, PCA, the scree curve and the two nulls five is the hypothesis, not the data's count
same-pole +0.24, opposite-pole -0.08 0.24472701836565558, -0.08134207180636474 analysis/stage2_structure.json#decomposition_tests.stage1.test2_same_opp_gap_p[0..1] Polarity, bipolarity and the trait graph permutation p 4.999750012499375e-05 (same key, index 3)
shuffled arm retains zero factors 0 analysis/fa_nulls.json#arms.shuffled.n_factors_chosen Factor analysis of the null arms, The null control arms trained at the zoo's exact objective on the same 445 prompts
permuted arm retains eight, agreement at chance 8; best-matched congruence mean 0.1779 analysis/fa_nulls.json#arms.permuted.n_factors_chosen, #tucker_vs_real_stage_one.permuted.mean_abs_best_matched_congruence Factor analysis of the null arms re-identified by data (next row)
re-identified permuted factors at 0.98 to 1.00 0.9976, 0.9951, 0.9854, 0.9940, 0.9838 (signs free) analysis/fa_nulls.json#tucker_vs_real_stage_one.permuted.source_relabelled.best_matching[*].congruence Factor analysis of the null arms the shared prompt pool is not what the factors are made of
Fisher metric 0.97 expected, 0.96 empirical 0.965359016717984 and 0.9577766396647475 (mean abs matched) analysis/fa_fisher_metric.json#loading_matrix_congruence_k5.pairs.frobenius_vs_fisher_expected.mean_abs_matched_congruence, ...frobenius_vs_fisher_empirical.mean_abs_matched_congruence The factor analysis in the model's own metric metric change, not a rerun
Goldberg-only factoring 0.99 0.9922779568528804 analysis/goldberg_only.json#verdicts.T1a_factors_survive_dropping_the_34.value Goldberg-only factoring and the 34 as a held-out set the 34 held-out words are placed where an independent rater puts them (same page, test 2b)

Row 2. The structure is the training contrast's

Status: holds. Would break it: a second base model landing traits elsewhere on the same data.

number in the draft value in the file file and key wiki page control
arrangement complete at rank 1 chart Pearson 0.9967445664202496; 15 of 15 identified analysis/rank_sweep.json#ranks.r1.chart.pearson_75, #ranks.r1.identification_among_134.top1 Rank sweep rank-1 judged own-factor movement -0.41 against 27.08 at rank 64 (#behaviour.ranks.r1.mean_own_factor_amplification, ..._rank64)
text readout predicts 94% of held-out position held-out R^2 0.9380347105286267 analysis/goldberg_only.json#test3_text_embedding_baseline.ridge_pair_contrast_to_chart.heldout_r2_overall Goldberg-only factoring and the 34 as a held-out set the constitution alone: held-out R^2 -0.034409160222032664 (...ridge_constitution_to_chart.heldout_r2_overall)
adapter geometry itself 98% 0.9822421695022922 ...comparator_adapter_geometry.r2_overall same ceiling for the text readout
text Gram and adapter Gram correlate 0.86 0.8601935162272526 ...text_gram_vs_adapter_gram.max_of_constitution_and_contrast same
text factors match adapter factors 0.81 to 0.97 Warmth 0.9230, Imagination 0.9023, Competence 0.9705, Timidity 0.8131, Arousal 0.8967; mean 0.901112105638296 analysis/fa_text_contrast.json#best_matching, #mean_abs_matched_congruence Factor analysis of the training-contrast embeddings the matching is a permutation; the Timidity and Arousal rotation appears in the text solution too
prompted arrangement, Procrustes 74%, null 4% 0.7387431438763885; null 95th percentile 0.03568178186070537 analysis/actspace_geometry_fa.json#windows.resp.procrustes_r2_fa, #windows.resp.procrustes_null_95pct Constitution-as-prompt persona vectors vs weight geometry an artefact check, not evidence the model added structure (draft A7)

Row 3. A trait is its output subspace

Status: holds within one recipe. Would break it: cross-seed column-space overlap failing on new data.

number in the draft value in the file file and key wiki page control
cross-seed cosine 0.018 0.018060998368198355 (n 40) analysis/act_gram.json#arms.frob.a_same_trait_cross_seed_mean The seed floor r/d = 64/2560 = 0.025; frame overlap 0.021471366484559353 (#arms.frob.c2_frame_overlap.seed0_vs_seed1.c2b_summed)
40 of 40 identified; matrices agree 0.997 40; 0.9966259139824906 #arms.frob.d_top1_of_134, #arms.frob.e_pearson_cross_vs_within Cross-seed geometry different-trait cross-seed cosine 0.0018594300142914396 (#arms.frob.b_diff_trait_cross_seed_mean)
activation-weighted cosine 0.66, unrelated 0.09 0.6642887281525424; 0.08760415842065107 #arms.pool445.a_same_trait_cross_seed_mean, #arms.pool445.within_seed0_offdiag_mean_cosine The activation-weighted Gram, and what the seed floor looks like in it ceiling 0.8909847593616453 (#verdict.null_c2b_C); pairs at the same fraction of ceiling in both metrics (#verdict.ratio_a_C_over_null_C 0.7456, #verdict.ratio_a_F_over_null_F 0.8412)
column space 46% vs 14% same_mean 0.46279728915356094, off_mean 0.14087331941381756, top1 40 of 40 analysis/column_space.json#stage1.identification_40_seed1_queries_vs_134_seed0.col_wtd_k64 Column-space structure row space identifies 19 of 40 (...row_unw_k64.top1)
top output directions agree 0.77 vs 0.21 0.7701377220108219; 0.21012838847727913 #stage1.top1_left_vector_same_trait_cross_seed.mean_abs_cos, #stage1.top1_left_vector_diff_trait_cross_seed.mean_abs_cos Column-space structure

Row 4. Map is not behaviour

Status: holds. Would break it: a metric in which functionally similar adapters are always close.

number in the draft value in the file file and key wiki page control
rank sweep see row 2 analysis/rank_sweep.json Rank sweep
sliders at cosine 0.003 to 0.022 with the trained adapter 0.0025055221550983157 (warm) to 0.022155165412935125 (organized) analysis/persona_sliders.json#weight_space.sliders.<trait>.cos_with_134.<trait> Persona sliders - LoRAs trained to an activation-space target the sliders move the judged persona the right way (#behaviour.own_factor_movement)
stage one vs stage two of one trait, activation-weighted 0.009 R_res 0.009222883147729255 analysis/act_gram_stage2.json#verdict.R_res The stage boundary in the activation-weighted metric same-function benchmark 0.7455668811085819 (#verdict.benchmark_same_function_stage1_cross_seed)
Fisher norms span a factor of 260 259.924881015629 analysis/fisher_norms.json#comparisons.full_range.ratio Fisher norms of the steering directions random-merge band median 0.12382989334918551 (#random_band.median)
Warmth three times a random merge 0.36503759829531435 / 0.12382989334918551 = 2.95 #directions.FA_Warmth.F_ref, #random_band.median Fisher norms of the steering directions
stage-two shared direction 6.7 times flatter 0.14899427326654663 (its inverse is 6.71) #comparisons.stage2_vs_stage1_grand_mean.ratio_S2mean_over_stage1mean Fisher norms of the steering directions, What the stage-two shared direction does

Row 5. Stage two installs a register first

Status: holds. Would break it: a persona whose extra amplitude comes from the register.

number in the draft value in the file file and key wiki page control
15% of every stage-two adapter's norm; cosine 0.39, spread 0.03 0.1514038882692439; 0.38929785188872645; sd 0.031056220786483055 analysis/stage2_structure.json#shared_component.stage2 Structure of the stage-two adapter space stage one: 0.07948767279497902, 0.28103697835548513, sd 0.12559260390449356 (#shared_component.stage1)
trait-free runs at 0.30 0.30353526531657493 (five seeds, sd 0.0007) analysis/stage2_neutral_control.json#neutral_vs_grand_mean.mean Stage two, explored nearest zoo trait unemotional for all five (#per_neutral[*].max_cos_trait)
residual correlates with stage one at 0.81 0.811787783969743 analysis/stage2_structure.json#centred_cosines.corr_stage1_stage2 Structure of the stage-two adapter space
bipolarity mostly gone, opposite poles +0.12 0.12301499153773737 (same-pole 0.19104548852552697) #decomposition_tests.stage2.test2_same_opp_gap_p[1], [0] Polarity, bipolarity and the trait graph stage one -0.08134207180636474
persona arrangement is stage one's, 0.99 0.9915249945319294 analysis/fulloct_geometry.json#gram_correlation_offdiag.persona_vs_stage1 Full OCT persona replication
shared direction accounts for 0.9% of the extra amplitude 0.009326363320103694 analysis/stage2_exploration.json#register_vs_residual.share_of_gap_cond_c Stage two, explored
stage one names its word 0.2%, persona 0.3%, stage two 13 traits and chart cosine 0.61 0.0023320895522388058; 0.002798507462686567; 13; 0.6105703585726646; same factor and pole 0.5584415584415584 analysis/selfid.json#per_prompt.P1.conditions.{stage1,persona,stage2}.{exact_hit_rate,n_traits_with_any_exact_hit,chart_cos_mean,same_factor_and_pole_share} Self-identification probe permutation null exact-hit p95 0.0032649253731343282 (...stage2.exact_hit_rate_null_p95); the pre-registered persona prediction failed

Row 6. Direction predicts personality

Status: holds in the zoo's frame. Would break it: steering at matched dose that breaks the sphere correlation.

number in the draft value in the file file and key wiki page control
sphere Spearman 0.68; 0.95 near, 2.92 far; 45 of 72 habitable 0.6765886845997277; 0.9462620103993861; 2.917385198267297; 45 analysis/sphere_page_fa.json#smooth.{rho,near_mean,far_mean}, #coherence.none The sphere sweep on the factor chart iso-KL rerun of the PC sphere keeps 0.65 (The sphere sweep at iso-KL dose)
suppress-over-amplify 1.90 at equal alpha, 1.65 at matched dose, 0.80 by headroom 1.8957528957528955; 1.6455696202531644; 0.7946215813581846 analysis/matched_dose_steering.json#published_equal_alpha_summary.all.suppress_over_amplify_raw, #summary.all.suppress_over_amplify_raw, #summary.all.suppress_over_amplify_room Suppression versus amplification at matched Fisher dose KL target 0.24765978669837102 nats per token (#kl_target_nats_per_token)
dials: 8 of 10 (axes), 10 of 10 right direction and 8 most (factor adapters) counts on the pages analysis/spider.json#axes, #bigfive OCEAN dials replication (spider plots), Big Five factor adapters (Persona Cartography's own ten dials) keyed-adjective average 7 of 10, personas 8 of 10 (#traits, #personas)
additivity deviation 53% 0.5282408112973758 analysis/additivity.json#median_resid_over_effect Additivity of the Big Five steering axes noise norm 0.31666612924087495 (#noise_norm)
forecast r 0.61 to 0.85, label 0.44 to 0.73 diagonal 0.753, 0.855, 0.735, 0.612, 0.737; labels 0.640, 0.729, 0.623, 0.440, 0.634 analysis/data_forecast.json#axis_score_vs_shift_matrix_rows_axis_cols_dim, #directions.<factor>.label_baseline_pearson Forecasting trained behaviour from the data's first-order score leave-one-out scoring (#directions.<factor>.axis_*_loo); in-sample N x N control 134 of 134 (The N x N data-to-adapter scoring test)

Row 7. First-order score flags harmful data

Status: register only; misalignment from a contrast. Would break it: a harm signature that clears the band without a matched control.

number in the draft value in the file file and key wiki page control
sycophancy arms: weight-space ordering 0.94, Agreeableness 0.84, praise +1.0 0.942857142857143; 0.8406680016960504; +1.0 (p 0.007849607519624019) analysis/syc_forecast.json#weight_space.cos_sycophantic_spearman_vs_forecast.rho, #bigfive.agreeableness_spearman_vs_axis_score.rho, #contrasts.syc_top_vs_syc_bottom.praise_neutral Forecasting sycophancy from a preference dataset's first-order score length-matched control arm (syc_control) in the same six
composite deference -0.49; top arm holds 20 of 20, bottom gives way on half -0.48571428571428577; capitulation_rate_judge syc_top 0.0, syc_bottom 0.5 #primary_spearman.rho, #rates.{syc_top,syc_bottom}.capitulation_rate_judge Forecasting sycophancy from a preference dataset's first-order score the sycophantic direction's trained arm lands nearest warm (#weight_space.nearest_zoo_traits_by_abs_cosine)
corrigibility: flagged arm engages less, -0.20 p 0.007; -0.175 length-stratified -0.2, p 0.006899655017249137; corr_ls 0.15 against random 0.325 analysis/dolci_flag_training.json#compliance_tests.flagged_vs_random.any_engagement_rate; analysis/syc_forecast.json#compliance.rates.{corr_ls,random}.any_engagement_rate Training on what the Dolci corrigible flag flagged, Forecasting sycophancy from a preference dataset's first-order score weight-space forecast held: cos with corrigible -0.0307 flagged, +0.0058 random, +0.0470 anti (dolci_flag_training.json#weight_space.cosine_with_alignment_adapters.*.corrigible)
emergent misalignment: three directions clear the band before training trait_unintelligent, trait_negligent, axis_Agreeableness analysis/em_medical.json#part_a.prereg_verdict.directions_clearing_band Emergent misalignment on bad medical advice - the map sees it coming and sees it afterwards band of 20 random merges; the pre-registered primary (axis_Conscientiousness) did not clear it
forecast predicts trained difference at 0.91 over 145 directions 0.905888836403716, n 145, permutation p 4.999750012499375e-05 analysis/em_part_b.json#forecast_agreement same
13 of 79 misaligned answers against 0 em_bad 13 of 79; em_good 0 of 79; em_dolci 0 of 80; base 0 of 80 analysis/em_medical.json#part_c.em_questions.per_condition.*.n_misaligned same Fisher p 0.00014273759843877777 (#part_c.em_questions.tests.em_bad_vs_em_good.misaligned.p_fisher_exact)
both medical arms at 0.24 of a trait adapter on the chart 0.24259276992714035 analysis/em_part_b.json#factor_chart.em_bad_c126.chart_len_over_trait_mean same a lone fine-tune would read as ordinary medical SFT
reward hacking: positive control 973 of 973 frac_positive 1.0, n 973 analysis/sorh_data_scoring.json#directions.sorh_hack_minus_control.paired_diff Scoring the reward-hacks data before any training no personality direction beats the 20 random merges (#random_band)
hack and control arms at 1% of a trait adapter's chart length 0.004244639039248038 / 0.5739551981666131 = 0.0074 (hack); 0.0053286033135964035 / 0.5739551981666131 = 0.0093 (control) analysis/sorh_projection.json#sorh_hack.length_unit, #sorh_control.length_unit, #reference.trait_chart_len_mean The reward-hacks arms — the positive control that also failed blind battery separates neither arm from the other (The reward-hacks arms — the positive control that also failed)

What the draft states as method, and where it is recorded

What this page does not do

It does not re-derive any number. Where a value here differs from the draft's rounding by more than the last digit, that is a finding to record in Source contradictions, and none was found on 2026-09-16. The one attribution worth knowing: the draft's "-0.175 length-stratified" corrigibility figure is the corr_ls arm of the sycophancy run, so its file is syc_forecast.json, not dolci_flag_training.json.

Sources

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  • qwen35/analysis/fa_nulls.json#arms.permuted.n_factors_chosen
  • qwen35/analysis/fa_nulls.json#tucker_vs_real_stage_one.permuted.source_relabelled.best_matching
  • qwen35/analysis/fa_fisher_metric.json#loading_matrix_congruence_k5.pairs
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  • qwen35/analysis/goldberg_only.json#test3_text_embedding_baseline.ridge_pair_contrast_to_chart.heldout_r2_overall
  • qwen35/analysis/goldberg_only.json#test3_text_embedding_baseline.ridge_constitution_to_chart.heldout_r2_overall
  • qwen35/analysis/goldberg_only.json#test3_text_embedding_baseline.comparator_adapter_geometry.r2_overall
  • qwen35/analysis/goldberg_only.json#test3_text_embedding_baseline.text_gram_vs_adapter_gram.max_of_constitution_and_contrast
  • qwen35/analysis/fa_text_contrast.json#best_matching
  • qwen35/analysis/fa_text_contrast.json#mean_abs_matched_congruence
  • qwen35/analysis/stage2_structure.json#decomposition_tests.stage1.test2_same_opp_gap_p
  • qwen35/analysis/stage2_structure.json#decomposition_tests.stage2.test2_same_opp_gap_p
  • qwen35/analysis/rank_sweep.json#ranks.r1.identification_among_134.top1
  • qwen35/analysis/rank_sweep.json#ranks.r1.chart.pearson_75
  • qwen35/analysis/rank_sweep.json#behaviour.ranks.r1.mean_own_factor_amplification
  • qwen35/analysis/act_gram.json#arms.frob.a_same_trait_cross_seed_mean
  • qwen35/analysis/act_gram.json#arms.frob.d_top1_of_134
  • qwen35/analysis/act_gram.json#arms.frob.e_pearson_cross_vs_within
  • qwen35/analysis/act_gram.json#arms.pool445.a_same_trait_cross_seed_mean
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  • qwen35/analysis/column_space.json#stage1.identification_40_seed1_queries_vs_134_seed0.col_wtd_k64
  • qwen35/analysis/column_space.json#stage1.top1_left_vector_same_trait_cross_seed.mean_abs_cos
  • qwen35/analysis/column_space.json#stage1.top1_left_vector_diff_trait_cross_seed.mean_abs_cos
  • qwen35/analysis/persona_sliders.json#weight_space.sliders.*.cos_with_134
  • qwen35/analysis/act_gram_stage2.json#verdict.R_res
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  • qwen35/analysis/fisher_norms.json#comparisons.stage2_vs_stage1_grand_mean.ratio_S2mean_over_stage1mean
  • qwen35/analysis/fisher_norms.json#directions.FA_Warmth.F_ref
  • qwen35/analysis/fisher_norms.json#random_band.median
  • qwen35/analysis/stage2_structure.json#shared_component
  • qwen35/analysis/stage2_structure.json#centred_cosines.corr_stage1_stage2
  • qwen35/analysis/stage2_neutral_control.json#neutral_vs_grand_mean.mean
  • qwen35/analysis/stage2_neutral_control.json#per_neutral.*.max_cos_trait
  • qwen35/analysis/stage2_exploration.json#register_vs_residual.share_of_gap_cond_c
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  • qwen35/analysis/selfid.json#per_prompt.P1.conditions
  • qwen35/analysis/sphere_page_fa.json#smooth
  • qwen35/analysis/sphere_page_fa.json#coherence.none
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  • qwen35/analysis/matched_dose_steering.json#summary.all.suppress_over_amplify_raw
  • qwen35/analysis/matched_dose_steering.json#summary.all.suppress_over_amplify_room
  • qwen35/analysis/additivity.json#median_resid_over_effect
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  • qwen35/analysis/syc_forecast.json#bigfive.agreeableness_spearman_vs_axis_score.rho
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  • qwen35/analysis/syc_forecast.json#compliance.rates
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  • qwen35/analysis/dolci_flag_training.json#weight_space.cosine_with_alignment_adapters
  • qwen35/analysis/em_medical.json#part_a.prereg_verdict.directions_clearing_band
  • qwen35/analysis/em_medical.json#part_c.em_questions.per_condition
  • qwen35/analysis/em_part_b.json#forecast_agreement
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  • qwen35/analysis/sorh_data_scoring.json#directions.sorh_hack_minus_control.paired_diff.frac_positive
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  • qwen35/analysis/sorh_projection.json#reference.trait_chart_len_mean
  • qwen35/analysis/actspace_geometry_fa.json#windows.resp.procrustes_r2_fa
  • qwen35/analysis/actspace_geometry_fa.json#windows.resp.procrustes_null_95pct
  • qwen35/phase2_runs/archive/phase5_sweep_134.json

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